Future Architecture
Portfolio Logic
A framework that orders initiatives, resources and strategic bets so that future viability becomes visible and steerable.
Portfolio Logic does not order projects — it orders bets. It forces the organisation to make its resource allocation visible as a portfolio of differently risky assumptions about the future, instead of a flat list of initiatives.
Three horizons, three bet types
Following McKinsey Three Horizons, Portfolio Logic distinguishes safe bets (optimise the core), medium bets (adjacent markets / new capabilities) and asymmetric bets (future options with high payoff at limited stake). The balance between these three shares is the actual strategic statement.
Why „bets“ — not „projects“?
The term bet is deliberate. It makes uncertainty, stake, thesis, kill-criterion and payoff explicit — categories a project does not know. See the glossary entry Strategic Bet for the full reasoning.
Related terms